| Without massive active intervention by China, Iran's | | | | without massive, active intervention by China, Iran's |
| giant oil consumer, and Russia, Teheran's giant supplier | | | | giant oil consumer, and by Russia, Teheran's giant |
| of arms and expertise, Western sanctions against Iran | | | | supplier of arms and expertise, Western sanctions |
| lack any genuine operative significance and may | | | | against Iran lack any genuine operative significance and |
| remain empty bluster | | | | may remain empty bluster. |
| We recently saw another flurry of international | | | | Serious concern is generally felt regarding the efficacy |
| diplomacy between Teheran, Europe and the United | | | | of economic and political sanctions on different states |
| States regarding Iran's nuclear program. In the wings, | | | | around the world, for example Cuba, Syria, North |
| the ostensibly minor actors, China and Russia with their | | | | Korea, and Iran. We can learn from Iraq, Serbia, or |
| considerable economic interests in Iran, put the | | | | South Africa, that in fact only internal revolution or |
| "brakes" on any aggressive measures against Iran. | | | | outside military intervention like a blow to the heart of |
| It seems clear to most of the world's countries that this | | | | the tyrannical regime, can effect real change in dark |
| is a critical test of the international community's resolve | | | | states like the ayatollahs. |
| and ability to deal with states that develop | | | | At the same time, the practicability of a military move |
| non-conventional capabilities and threaten its security | | | | against Iran is unclear. As the sands of time run out on |
| and peace. In theory, the Security Council should lead | | | | the ideological American government's worldview and |
| the way as it is the operative arm of the UN. It is | | | | activities - a larger question mark arises regarding the |
| mandated to operate to defend the peace under | | | | possible timing of an American strike against Iran - |
| Section 7 of the UN Charter. Staring in the face of the | | | | perhaps as the last chord of George Bush Junior's |
| agencies confronting this problem is the Council's failure | | | | administration. But still, without continuity by the |
| to curb North Korea, which is a resonating and | | | | president who inherits Bush's crown, and without |
| threatening example of the helplessness to prevent | | | | steady massive international pressure on Iran, this |
| nuclear armament by a "rogue" nation. | | | | move may fail and might only prompt a drive towards |
| Observing Teheran's diplomatic conduct, Iran has | | | | nuclear capability in revenge and to restore national |
| apparently learned her lessons well from North Korean | | | | pride. |
| leader, Kim Jong-Il, and understands the weaknesses | | | | |
| of the international system as reflected in the simple | | | | Strategic Implications for Israel |
| Iranian zigzags and basic tango of "one step forward, | | | | At this stage, it seems that in the coming years, Israel, |
| two steps back". Through a combination of "Agreed" / | | | | as America's proxy, will be busy licking its wounds |
| "Not Agreed" answers to the compromises proposed | | | | after the conflict with Hizbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon. |
| in their negotiations with the Europeans and Americans, | | | | It may be deterred from taking direct military action |
| they have successfully pursued a policy of divide and | | | | against Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel desires to stay "in |
| conquer for years. Thus, while declaring that they will | | | | the shadows" and encourage diplomatic activities with |
| never surrender their nuclear program, when they | | | | Iran. According to military experts, it would require an |
| sense that international sanctions are imminent (and | | | | extremely complicated strike whose efficacy in |
| they are indeed closer than ever), they ensure their | | | | preventing the entire nuclear program is unclear. |
| message stresses their agreement to suspend the | | | | According to information, the nuclear facilities cannot |
| nuclear program "in the future". | | | | be attacked from the air and there is no way to |
| Though very familiar with the Iranian dance, following | | | | destroy Iran's nuclear facilities in one fell swoop like the |
| years of fruitless negotiation, Teheran's vague | | | | single reactor in Iraq. |
| conformity manages to "excite" the European states. | | | | The conclusion from the above is painful but must be |
| These latter hope for an Iranian "lifeline" to help them | | | | heard - Israel must continue its intensive activities, |
| avoid the use of force that would conflict with their | | | | without let up, and use every possible channel, direct |
| liberal outlook, which conceals a genuine fear of the | | | | and indirect, to stop Iran's nuclear program. For |
| failure of force, exposing them as weak. They | | | | example, by continuing to provide logistical support |
| therefore continue giving Iran one last "time out" to | | | | (such as "incriminating" evidence) to back American |
| agree to their demands, as with the two week | | | | actions on the issue. At the same time, since no one |
| extension they just gave after the ultimatum deadline | | | | (including the Iranians themselves it seems) knows |
| at the end of August expired. | | | | when, Israel must recognize that there is a real danger |
| The United States wishes to maintain a firm, clear line | | | | in the coming years that Iran will acquire the scientific |
| against Iranian nuclear armament without confronting its | | | | knowledge and perhaps even sufficient quantities of |
| European "allies", and is dragged into endlessly waiting | | | | fissionable material to produce nuclear bombs. |
| for the Teheran mullahs to reconsider. In its distress, | | | | From now on, this mindset must guide the leadership |
| Washington is considering forming a coalition of the | | | | when they start rehabiliting Israel's strategic defense |
| "willing to impose sanctions" - along the lines of the | | | | factors. They must decide how to develop a defense |
| "coalition of the willing" against Iraq. | | | | system (like the Arrow and prepare the home front |
| However, even if the diplomatic tango in its present | | | | command), and which offensive military capabilities |
| form ends, and even if wide-scale international | | | | should be developed (long haul aircraft, covert |
| sanctions are eventually imposed on Iran, it is likely to | | | | operations in the enemy rear to overthrow the regime, |
| recur, in a game in which the cancellation of sanctions | | | | etc.) |
| are offered in return for suspending uranium | | | | Israel faces many existential questions that demand |
| enrichment. | | | | reassessment - and the sooner this happens - the |
| This is fine for a political science textbook. However, | | | | better. |
